Experts said that the relationship between the upstream industry and the "development and protection" of rare earth needs to be further optimized, and the companies downstream of the industrial chain should also strengthen R & D, promote the optimization of the whole rare earth industrial chain with new momentum through technological transformation and innovation, and help the high-quality development of China's rare earth industry
Our reporter Shu Yajiang Cao Qi
Trainee reporter Meng Tingting
Recently, rare earth prices have stood at an all-time high, attracting market attention. Since October, the price of rare earth has shown an upward trend as a whole. The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has increased from 598000 yuan / ton in early October to 735000 yuan / ton on October 28, an increase of 22.91%.
"Rare earth prices have risen sharply in the past two weeks, especially for light rare earth products. In fact, there was a sharp correction in the rare earth market last Friday. According to this judgment, this round of rare earth market may be more affected by market sentiment." Yang Wenhua, rare earth industry analyst of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, told reporters, "Fundamentally, the market sentiment stems from the power rationing panic, the lock and reluctant sale of goods at the holding end, and the continuous tightening of supply end."
According to the third quarterly report, the performance of A-share rare earth permanent magnet concept stocks generally rose in the first three quarters of this year. Some analysts said that rare earth prices may continue to remain high in the future.
Domestic rare earth supply is tight
The owner locks up the goods and holds back the sale
Yang Wenhua said, "for a period of time, upstream enterprises have high expectations for rare earth prices, resulting in people who now have spot goods do not ship. Of course, due to the shortage of supply, spot goods are also very scarce." according to her, the current enterprises that lock and sell goods are mainly from Sichuan, Fujian, Jiangxi and Inner Mongolia.
In October, northern rare earth launched 16 special bidding (64 targets in total) and traded 250 tons of metal praseodymium and neodymium, with a total turnover of RMB 194817000. During this period, the starting price of the target rose from 725800 yuan / ton to 854500 yuan / ton.
In the view of the industry, the transaction price of metal praseodymium and neodymium continues to rise, and even continuously refresh the annual maximum transaction price, which is mainly due to the strong downstream demand, the reduction of power supply and production of metal plants, and the reduction of oxide output of separation plants, resulting in insufficient inventory of raw materials and tight spot procurement.
Rare earths are known as "industrial vitamins" and "mother of new materials", and China is the world's leading producer of rare earths. In 2021, the national total control index of rare earth mining was 168000 tons, higher than 140000 tons last year. The total control index of smelting separation was 162000 tons, an increase of 20% over last year.
Nevertheless, the shortage of rare earth supply continues. "Due to the import restrictions of Myanmar's minerals, the supply of rare earth minerals is tight, the supply of waste materials is tight and the price is strong, which leads to the upside down of the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide. In addition, the price of auxiliary materials is also rising, and the cost of separation enterprises has increased. In addition, some separated enterprises in Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hunan and other places have reduced production, which leads to the continuous shortage of spot supply of praseodymium and neodymium oxide. With the procurement of magnetic materials enterprises The arrival of this cycle has caused the price of praseodymium and neodymium to continue to rise recently, "Wu Longkun, an analyst of rare and precious metals division of Shanghai Steel Union, said in an interview with Securities Daily.
Industrial chain company
The impact of price increases varies
Since 2021, with the industry maintaining a high outlook, the overall performance of rare earth permanent magnet enterprises has shown a good trend. Securities Daily The reporter noted that at present, there are four A-share rare earth separation and processing listed enterprises, namely Shenghe resources, Beifang rare earth and Guangsheng nonferrous metals. In the first three quarters of this year, the above four companies achieved a total operating revenue of 45.035 billion yuan and a total net profit attributable to the parent company of about 4.304 billion yuan. Among them, three companies had a year-on-year increase of more than 300% in net profit attributable to the parent company, and Beifang rare earth reached 495.03% Profits increased greatly. All four companies said that it was due to the overall improvement of rare earth market, the rise of sales prices of main rare earth products and the sharp increase of sales volume.
So, will the middle and lower reaches enterprises accept the continuous rise in rare earth prices? "Large magnetic material factories are mainly based on long orders. Generally speaking, long orders have a one-year period and a half year period, which can avoid the risk of spot price rise to a certain extent, but in the long run, it is inevitable to be affected. For example, some magnetic material factories have reversed the cost and price to varying degrees some time ago." Yang Wenhua said.
Xinda Securities Research Report proposed that from August to September this year, the price of metal praseodymium and neodymium was at a high level of 700000 yuan / ton - 750000 yuan / ton, which restrained the consumption of some medium and low-end neodymium, iron and boron, but the penetration of high-end products in the new energy vehicle industry was accelerated. At the same time, driven by power shortage and energy efficiency control, industrial motors quickly changed to neodymium, iron and boron motors, although the overall output was driven by medium and low-end neodymium, iron and boron However, the increase in the proportion of high-end Nd-Fe-B also supported the growth of total demand for rare earths.
In fact, as one of the major demand growth directions of the rare earth industry, new energy vehicles are receiving more and more attention from the market. Taking Jinli permanent magnet as an example, in the first three quarters of 2021, the company's revenue in the field of new energy vehicles and auto parts reached 659 million yuan, accounting for about 22.6% of the company's operating revenue in the same period (accounting for 23.9% of the main business revenue) , an increase of 225.93% over the same period last year. Jinli permanent magnet said that in the first three quarters, the company's sales of new energy vehicle drive motor magnetic steel products can be equipped with about 800000 new energy passenger vehicles. With the rapid development of new energy vehicles, this pulling effect is expected to continue.
Rare earth prices reflect scarce value
High quality industrial development expected
Pan Helin, executive dean and professor of Digital Economy Research Institute of Central South University of economics and law, believes that China's rare earth industry is expanding from resource-based industry to downstream rare earth industry chain, and China's rare earth mining and processing has formed a relatively complete technical capacity. "However, due to the increasing demand and slow supply growth, rare earth prices may remain high in the future."
Tan Haojun, a financial columnist at sina, said that the rise in rare earth prices will have a certain impact on downstream enterprises, but not to a great extent. In the past, China's rare earth prices were cheap, but now it is reasonable to return to normal value. With policy regulation, orderly mining and market standardization, high-quality rare earth will show high-quality prices, and rare earth prices will tend to be stable in the future, which will reflect rare earth to a certain extent The value of "scarce resources".
"In this round, the price of praseodymium and neodymium has increased rapidly and greatly. In addition, the terminal enterprises do not accept the current price of praseodymium and neodymium, and the price of praseodymium and neodymium has been corrected in recent days." Wu Longkun said that the market still supports the price of praseodymium and neodymium. Under the background of the rapid growth of the output of new energy vehicles and the installed capacity of wind power motors, the demand for neodymium, iron and boron continues to improve, and the high price of praseodymium and neodymium is difficult to get down and continue to improve.
It is worth mentioning that in order to reduce the impact of price fluctuations of rare earth raw materials on itself, some industry companies have taken positive actions. It is reported that Jinli permanent magnet has taken many countermeasures: including adopting the production and sales mode of setting production according to sales, purchasing rare earth raw materials in advance according to the orders on hand; forming a certain price adjustment mechanism with some main customers; and according to the price of upstream raw materials According to the development trend, purchase an appropriate amount of rare earth raw materials as safety inventory; increase investment in technology R & D, optimize product formula and adopt grain boundary penetration technology with independent intellectual property rights, so that the proportion of heavy rare earth consumption of the same product decreases year by year.
Wang Xiaoqi, director of Finance and Trade Research Center of Sichuan (Western) economic and Cultural Development Research Institute, told Securities Daily: "The strategic position and role of rare earth in China's industrial economy and even the national economy are unshakable in the medium and long term. In the future, the relationship between the upstream rare earth industry and related companies on the 'development and protection' of rare earth needs to be further optimized, and the companies downstream of the rare earth industry chain should also strengthen R & D, promote technological innovation and further improve equipment through technological innovation Reform, innovate and develop, promote the optimization of the whole rare earth industry chain with new momentum, and help realize the high-quality development of China's rare earth industry. "